Van der Pas, J.W.G.M.; D.B. Agusdinata; W.E. Walker and V.A.W.J. Marchau: DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN TRANSPORT POLICYMAKING: A NEW PARADIGM AND APPROACH, Proceedings of the BARI conference 2006, BARI, 2006, pp. 1-8
Policymaking is about the future. As the future is uncertain, transport policymakers must take uncertainty into account in their policymaking. A scan of the proceedings of the 13th mini-Euro conference “Handling Uncertainty in Transportation Systems”  provides a variety of examples of uncertainties involved in transport policymaking (e.g., uncertainties about future transportation demand, modal choices of transport users, and route choice behavior). But an in-depth analysis shows that these examples are quite narrow and usually apply to only one type of uncertainty or one type of uncertainty at a time. This limited handling of uncertainty might lead to policy failure because not all aspects of uncertainty have been considered.
In this paper we establish an overview of how policymakers have dealt with these uncertainties in the past and suggest a new paradigm and approaches for dealing with uncertainties in policymaking. We focus on uncertainties in the transportation domain and on the case of Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) systems in vehicles in particular.