Wijnia, Y.C. and P.M. Herder: Modeling interdependencies in electricity infrastructure risk. In: Proceedings of the 1st Annual CZAEE International Conference 2004: 'Critical Infrastructure in the Energy Sector: Vulnerabilities and Protection', November 21st-22nd (2004), pp. 1-11. At: Prague, Czech Republic. Prague: CZAEE, 2004. International Proceeding (refereed)
In energy infrastructures, many potential problems can be recognized that threaten their functionality. Fortunately, the long experience with infrastructure systems has allowed industry time to develop mechanisms for mitigating these risks. However, recent changes (such as liberalization or extreme events like terrorism) have introduced new risks to these previously stable systems. Mitigating those new risks may worsen existing risks. Therefore, when deciding how to handle the new risks, one needs to consider multiple risks at the same time. This requires a coherent overview of all the risks. At this moment no such view exists. As the total number of risks is very high there are many different types of risk, (numbering perhaps in the thousands) the first step towards creating the overall picture is to group these risks into a manageable number of risk areas that cover most of them. The second step is to identify interdependencies between these risk areas. Interdependent risks need to be handled simultaneously whereas independent risks can be decided upon in isolation. This paper describes the process of grouping and correlating the risks.