De Joode, J.; Ö. Özdemir and H. Snoep: Developments on the Northwestern European market for seasonal gas storage: Historical analysis and future projections, pp. 71. Amsterdam: ECN Beleidsstudies (28-09-2009). ECN-E--09-065.
This study focuses on the demand and supply of seasonal swing in the northwest European gas market and the role of gas storage facilities therein. We apply a statistical analysis to analyse historic developments and a model-based analysis to analyse possible future developments with respect to northwest European swing demand and supply. The latter analysis provides projections for swing demand and gas storage developments until the year 2030. We analyse various scenarios with respect to future gas demand and seasonal flexibility characteristics of different gas supply options. Within the framework and assumptions used in our model-based analysis we find that northwest Europe needs to increase its gas storage capacity within a business-as-usual scenario as well as in alternative lower demand scenario. In order to realise the needed seasonal gas storage capacity, a substantial amount of projects currently planned need to go ahead.